Neonatal mortality during the war in Tigray: a cross-sectional community-based study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal mortality is among the key national and international indicators of health services. The global Sustainable Development Goal target for neonatal mortality is fewer than 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, by 2030. Neonatal mortality estimates in the 2019 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey found 25·7 deaths per 1000 livebirths. Subnational surveys specific to Tigray, Ethiopia, reported a neonatal mortality lifetime prevalence of 7·13 deaths. Another government report from the Tigray region estimated a neonatal mortality rate of ten deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2020. Despite the numerous interventions in Ethiopia's Tigray region to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the war has disrupted most health services, but the effect on neonatal mortality is unknown. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the magnitude and causes of neonatal mortality during the war in Tigray. METHODS: A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted in Tigray to evaluate neonatal mortality that occurred from Nov 4, 2020, to May 30, 2022. Among the 31 districts, 121 tabias were selected using computer-generated random sampling, and 189 087 households were visited. We adopted a validated WHO 2022 verbal autopsy tool, and data were collected using an interviewer-administrated Open Data Kit. In the absence of the mother, other respondents to the verbal autopsy interview were household members aged 18 years and older who provided care during the final illness that led to death. FINDINGS: 29 761 livebirths were recorded during the screening of 189 087 households. Verbal autopsy was administered for 1158 households with neonatal deaths. 317 neonates were stillborn, and 841 neonatal deaths were recorded with the WHO 2022 verbal autopsy tool from Nov 4, 2020, to May 30, 2022, in 31 districts. The neonatal mortality rate was 28·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths. 476 (57%) of the 841 neonatal deaths occurred at home and 296 (35%) in health facilities. A high rate of neonatal deaths was reported in rural districts (80% [673 of 841]) compared with urban districts (20% [168 of 841]), and 663 (79%) deaths occurred during the early neonatal period, in the first week of life (0-6 days). The leading causes of neonatal death were asphyxia (35% [291 of 834]), prematurity (30% [247 of 834]), and infection (12% [104 of 834]). Asphyxia (37% [246 of 663]) and infection (28% [50 of 178]) were the leading causes of death for early and late neonatal period deaths, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Neonatal mortality in Tigray is high due to preventable causes. An urgent response is needed to prevent the high number of neonatal deaths associated with the depleted health resources and services resulting from the war, and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal on neonatal mortality. FUNDING: UNICEF and United Nations Fund for Population Activities. TRANSLATION: For the Tigrigna translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Outcomes of discordant HIV screening test results at a southern academic medical center.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine outcomes of follow-up for persons with discordant fourth-generation HIV screening test results. DESIGN: A retrospective chart review. METHODS: We analyzed the electronic health record at the Medical University of South Carolina for a 10-year period spanning 2012-2022 to identify instances of discordant HIV screening test results, wherein initial antigen/antibody screening was positive, but reflex confirmatory testing for HIV-1 and HIV-2 antibodies was negative. We reviewed individual records to evaluate clinical follow-up and determine if the discordant test represented an acute HIV infection, a false-positive result, or was unresolved. RESULTS: We identified 199 testing instances with discordant results. Most discordant results (n = 115) were subsequently determined to reflect a false-positive test, while 56 were unresolved without documented follow-up testing. Twenty-eight cases of acute HIV infection were identified of which 26 were linked to care within a month of initial testing. Two acute HIV cases were not identified in real time leading to delay in diagnosis and care. Testing done in the context of infectious symptoms and testing performed in the emergency department were associated with increased odds of a discordant test ultimately reflecting acute HIV infection. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate the importance of appropriate and timely follow-up for discordant HIV screening test results.

Medication Safety Events After Acute Myocardial Infarction Among Veterans Treated at VA Versus Non-VA Hospitals.

INTRODUCTION: Fragmentation of health care across systems can contribute to mistakes in prescribing and filling medications among patients treated for myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to compare omissions, duplications, and delays in outpatient medications used for secondary prevention among veterans treated for MI at Veterans Affairs (VA) versus non-VA hospitals. METHODS: We utilized national VA and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data (2012-2018) to identify veterans 65 years or older hospitalized for MI and measured the use of outpatient medications for secondary prevention in the 30 days after MI among those treated at VA versus non-VA hospitals. RESULTS: A total of 118,456 veterans experiencing MI were included; of which 102,209 were hospitalized at non-VA hospitals. An omission in any medication class occurred more frequently among veterans treated at non-VA versus VA hospitals (82.8% vs 67.8%, P < 0.001). In multivariable modeling, the odds of omissions in any medication class were higher among those treated at non-VA versus VA hospitals (odds ratio: 3.04; 95% CI: 2.88-3.20). Duplications occurred more frequently in veterans treated at non-VA versus VA hospitals: 1.9% versus 1.6% had 1 or more for non-VA versus VA hospitals ( P < 0.001). Veterans treated at non-VA hospitals were more likely to have delays of 3 days or more in prescription fills after hospital discharge (88.4% vs 70.6% across all classes, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Omissions, duplications, and delays in outpatient prescribing of secondary prevention medications were more common among 118,456 veterans treated at non-VA versus VA hospitals for MI. Interventions aimed at improving care transitions and optimizing medication use among veterans treated at non-VA hospitals should be implemented.

FIB-4 as a Time-varying Covariate and Its Association With Severe Liver Disease in Primary Care: A Time-dependent Cox Regression Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND GOALS: The Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) has demonstrated a strong association with severe liver disease (SLD) outcomes in primary care, but previous studies have only evaluated this relationship using 1 or 2 FIB-4 scores. In this study, we determined the association of FIB-4 as a time-varying covariate with SLD risk using time-dependent Cox regression models. STUDY: This retrospective cohort study included primary care patients with at least 2 FIB-4 scores between 2012 and 2021. The outcome was the occurrence of an SLD event, a composite of cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. The primary predictor was FIB-4 advanced fibrosis risk, categorized as low-(<1.3), indeterminate-(1.3≤FIB to 4<2.67), and high-risk (≥2.67). FIB-4 scores were calculated and the index, last, and maximum FIB-4s were identified. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their corresponding 95% CI with adjustment for potentially confounding covariates. RESULTS: In the cohort, 20,828 patients had a median of 5 (IQR: 3 to 11) FIB-4 scores each and 3% (n=667) suffered an SLD outcome during follow-up. Maximum FIB-4 scores were indeterminate-risk for 34% (7149) and high-risk for 24% (4971) of the sample, and 32% (6692) of patients had an increase in fibrosis risk category compared with their index value. The adjusted Cox regression model demonstrated an association between indeterminate- (hazard ratio 3.21; 95% CI 2.33-4.42) and high-risk (hazard ratio 20.36; 95% CI 15.03-27.57) FIB-4 scores with SLD outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple FIB-4 values per patient are accessible in primary care, FIB-4 fibrosis risk assessments change over time, and high-risk FIB-4 scores (≥2.67) are strongly associated with severe liver disease outcomes when accounting for FIB-4 as a time-varying variable.

Toward precision medicine using a "digital twin" approach: modeling the onset of disease-specific brain atrophy in individuals with multiple sclerosis.

Digital Twin (DT) is a novel concept that may bring a paradigm shift for precision medicine. In this study we demonstrate a DT application for estimating the age of onset of disease-specific brain atrophy in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) using brain MRI. We first augmented longitudinal data from a well-fitted spline model derived from a large cross-sectional normal aging data. Then we compared different mixed spline models through both simulated and real-life data and identified the mixed spline model with the best fit. Using the appropriate covariate structure selected from 52 different candidate structures, we augmented the thalamic atrophy trajectory over the lifespan for each individual MS patient and a corresponding hypothetical twin with normal aging. Theoretically, the age at which the brain atrophy trajectory of an MS patient deviates from the trajectory of their hypothetical healthy twin can be considered as the onset of progressive brain tissue loss. With a tenfold cross validation procedure through 1000 bootstrapping samples, we found the onset age of progressive brain tissue loss was, on average, 5-6 years prior to clinical symptom onset. Our novel approach also discovered two clear patterns of patient clusters: earlier onset versus simultaneous onset of brain atrophy.

Impact of a double catastrophe, war and COVID-19, on health service utilization of a tertiary care hospital in Tigray: an interrupted time-series study.

BACKGROUND: In developing nations with fragile healthcare systems, the effect of war is likely to be much worse than it would be in more developed countries. The presence of COVID-19 will also likely exacerbate the war's impact. This study set out to determine the effect of armed conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilization at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. METHODS: An interrupted time-series study design was used to analyze patient visits over forty-eight consecutive months (from July 2017 to June 2021) at inpatient, outpatient, and emergency departments. Data were analyzed using segmented regression analysis with a defined outcome of level and trend changes in the number of patient visits. In addition, negative binomial regression analysis was also used to estimate the impact of both COVID-19 and the war on patient flow. RESULTS: There were 59,935 admissions, 876,533 outpatient visits, and 127,872 emergency room visits. The effect of COVID-19 was seen as soon as the Tigray regional government imposed comprehensive restrictions. Immediately after COVID-19 appeared, all the service areas exhibited a significant monthly drop in visits; [-35.6% (95% CI: -48.2%, -23.1%)] for inpatient, [-60.6% (95% CI: -71.6%, -49.5%)] for outpatient, and [-44.1% (95% CI: -59.5%, -28.7%)] for emergency department visits. The impact of the war became apparent after a lag time of one month. Controlling the effects of time and COVID-19, the war led to a significant fall in inpatient visits [-44.3% (95% CI: -67.2%, -21.5%)], outpatients [-52.1% (95% CI: -82.7%, -21.5%)], and emergency-room attendances [-45.0% (95% CI: -74.8%, -15.2%)]. An upward trend in outpatient flow was observed after the war [1,219.4 (95% CI: 326.1, 2,112.8)]. CONCLUSIONS: The present study has clearly indicated that the war and COVID-19 have led to a large reduction in admissions, outpatient attendance, and emergency department visits. The evidence from this study suggests that due to this double catastrophe, thousands of patients could not gain access to healthcare, with probable negative consequences. Governments and organizations should implement measures to buttress the healthcare system to maintain pre-war status of service.

Results of a multicenter cluster-randomized controlled clinical trial testing the effectiveness of a bioinformatics-enabled pharmacist intervention in transplant recipients.

An ambulatory medication safety dashboard was developed to identify missing labs, concerning labs, drug interactions, nonadherence, and transitions in care. This system was tested in a 2-year, prospective, cluster-randomized, controlled multicenter study. Pharmacists at 5 intervention sites used the dashboard to address medication safety issues, compared with usual care provided at 5 control sites. A total of 2196 transplant events were included (1300 intervention vs 896 control). During the 2-year study, the intervention arm had a 11.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.1%-15.5%) absolute risk reduction of having ≥1 emergency department (ED) visit (44.2% vs 55.5%, respectively; P < .001, respectively) and a 12.3% (95% confidence interval, 8.2%-16.4%) absolute risk reduction of having ≥1 hospitalization (30.1% vs 42.4%, respectively; P < .001). In those with ≥1 event, the median ED visit rate (2 [interquartile range (IQR) 1, 5] vs 2 [IQR 1, 4]; P = .510) and hospitalization rate (2 [IQR 1, 3] vs 2 [IQR 1, 3]; P = .380) were similar. Treatment effect varied by comorbidity burden, previous ED visits or hospitalizations, and heart or lung recipients. A bioinformatics dashboard-enabled, pharmacist-led intervention reduced the risk of having at least one ED visit or hospitalization, predominantly demonstrated in lower risk patients.

Impact of Race and Ethnicity on Severe Hypoglycemia Associated with Sulfonylurea Use for Type 2 Diabetes among Veterans.

Sulfonylureas are associated with hypoglycemia. Whether a racial/ethnic disparity in this safety outcome exists is unknown. We sought to assess the impact of race/ethnicity on severe hypoglycemia associated with sulfonylurea use for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Using Veterans Affairs and Medicare data, Veterans initially receiving metformin monotherapy for T2D between 2004 and 2006 were identified. Sulfonylurea use (either alone or via the addition of a prescription for a sulfonylurea to metformin) was captured and compared to remaining on metformin alone during the follow-up period (2007-2016). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from longitudinal competing risk Cox models were used to measure the association between sulfonylurea use and severe hypoglycemia defined as hospitalization for hypoglycemia. A total of 113,668 Veterans with T2D were included. A higher risk of severe hypoglycemia was associated with the receipt of sulfonylurea prescriptions versus remaining on metformin alone across all groups. The effect was largest among Hispanic Veterans (HR: 7.59, 95%CI:4.32-13.33), followed by Veterans in the other race/ethnicity cohort (HR: 4.57, 95%CI:2.50-8.36) and Non-Hispanic Black Veterans (HR: 3.67, 95%CI:2.78-4.85). The effect was smallest among Non-Hispanic White Veterans (HR: 3.11, 95%CI:2.77-3.48). In conclusion, a higher risk of severe hypoglycemia associated with sulfonylurea prescriptions was observed across all analyses. The relationship was most pronounced for Hispanic Veterans, who had nearly 8 times the risk of severe hypoglycemia with sulfonylureas versus remaining on metformin alone.

Toward Precision Medicine Using a "Digital Twin" Approach: Modeling the Onset of Disease-Specific Brain Atrophy in Individuals with Multiple Sclerosis.

Digital Twin (DT) is a novel concept that may bring a paradigm shift for precision medicine. In this study we demonstrate a DT application for estimating the age of onset of disease-specific brain atrophy in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) using brain MRI. We first augmented longitudinal data from a well-fitted spline model derived from a large cross-sectional normal aging data. Then we compared different mixed spline models through both simulated and real-life data and identified the mixed spline model with the best fit. Using the appropriate covariate structure selected from 52 different candidate structures, we augmented the thalamic atrophy trajectory over the lifespan for each individual MS patient and a corresponding hypothetical twin with normal aging. Theoretically, the age at which the brain atrophy trajectory of an MS patient deviates from the trajectory of their hypothetical healthy twin can be considered as the onset of progressive brain tissue loss. With a 10-fold cross validation procedure through 1000 bootstrapping samples, we found the onset age of progressive brain tissue loss was, on average, 5-6 years prior to clinical symptom onset. Our novel approach also discovered two clear patterns of patient clusters: earlier onset vs. simultaneous onset of brain atrophy.

Sulfonylureas as second line therapy for type 2 diabetes among veterans: Results from a National Longitudinal Cohort Study.

AIMS: To assess if switching to or adding sulfonylureas increases major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or severe hypoglycemia versus remaining on metformin alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective, longitudinal cohort utilizing United States Veterans Health Administration and Medicare data. Veterans with type 2 diabetes on metformin monotherapy between 2004 and 2006 were identified. Follow-up occurred through 2016. Those treated with either metformin plus a second-generation sulfonylurea (N = 45,305) or converted from metformin to a second-generation sulfonylurea (N = 2813) were compared to those receiving metformin monotherapy (N = 65,550). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95%CI from longitudinal competing risk Cox models were used to measure the association between sulfonylureas and outcomes. RESULTS: Switching to or adding a sulfonylurea to metformin was associated with 3 times the risk of severe hypoglycemia versus metformin monotherapy (HR:3.44, 95% CI: 3.06,3.85 and HR: 3.08, 95% CI: 2.77,3.42, respectively). Switching to or adding a sulfonylurea to metformin was associated with a 7-19% higher risk of MACE versus metformin monotherapy (HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00,1.14 and HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.13,1.25, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Switching to and adding second-generation sulfonylureas was associated an increase in severe hypoglycemia and MACE versus remaining on metformin alone. In an era where guidelines recommend diabetes therapies based on compelling indications, safety outcomes should be a key consideration when selecting therapy.

Recurrence risk in symptomatic intracranial stenosis treated medically in the real world.

BACKGROUND: The risk of early recurrence in medically treated patients with intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) may differ in clinical trials versus real-world settings. Delayed enrollment may contribute to lower event rates in ICAS trials. We aim to determine the 30-day recurrence risk in a real-world setting of symptomatic ICAS. METHODS: We used a comprehensive stroke center stroke registry to identify hospitalized patients with acute ischemic stroke or TIA due to symptomatic 50-99% ICAS. The outcome was recurrent stroke within 30 days. We used adjusted Cox regression models to identify factors associated with increased recurrence risk. We also performed a comparison of 30-day recurrent stroke rates in real world cohorts and clinical trials. RESULTS: Among 131 hospitalizations with symptomatic 50-99% ICAS over 3 years, 80 hospitalizations of 74 patients (mean age 71.6 years, 55.41% men) met the inclusion criteria. Over 30 days, 20.6 % had recurrent stroke; 61.5% (8/13) occurred within first 7 days. The risk was higher in patients not receiving dual antiplatelet therapy (HR 3.92 95% CI 1.30-11.84, p = 0.015) and hypoperfusion mismatch volume >3.5 mL at a T max>6 s threshold (HR 6.55 95% CI 1.60-26.88, p < 0.001). The recurrence risk was similar to another real world ICAD cohort (20.2%), and higher than that seen in clinical trials (2.2%-5.7%), even in those treated with maximal medical treatment or meeting inclusion criteria for trials. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with symptomatic ICAS, the real-world recurrence of ischemic events is higher than that seen in clinical trials, even in subgroups receiving the same pharmacological treatment strategies.

Prevalence and multi-level factors associated with acute malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months from war affected communities of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, 2021: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Armed conflicts greatly affect the health, nutrition, and food security of conflict affected settings particularly children. However, no empirical data exist regarding context specific factors contributing towards acute malnutrition in the war-torn Tigray, Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to identify individual and community level factors associated with acute malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months from armed conflict affected settings of Tigray, Ethiopia. METHODS: A community based cross-sectional study was conducted among 3,614 children aged 6-59 months in Tigray, from July 15 to Aug 15, 2021. Study participants were selected using a two-stage random sampling method. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data by interviewing mothers/caregivers. Mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements were taken from upper left arm of the children using MUAC tapes. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with acute malnutrition. Adjusted Odds ratio (AOR) with 95% CI were estimated to describe the strength of associations at p < 0.05. RESULTS: More than half (52.5%) of the sampled children were males in sex. Immediately after the first nine months into the conflict, the prevalence of severe, moderate, and global acute malnutrition was very high (5.1%, 21.8%, and 26.9%, respectively) in Tigray. The lowest and highest burden of child acute malnutrition was reported from Mekelle zone (13.3%) and Southeastern zone (36.7%), respectively. Individual-level factors such as older child age (AOR = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.18), female child sex (AOR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.05, 1.480.95), Vitamin-A supplementation (AOR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.65), and history of diarrhea (AOR = 1.22, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.53) and community-level factors like unimproved drinking water source (AOR = 1.31, 95%CI: 1.08, 1.58), unimproved toilet facility (AOR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.52), and severe food insecurity (AOR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.16. 2.07) were significantly associated with childhood acute malnutrition. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of acute malnutrition is a severe public health problem in Tigray. To prevent the untimely suffering and death of children, regular nutrition screening, speedy, and appropriate referral of all malnourished children to nutritional services and large-scale humanitarian assistance including access to food; nutrition supplies; water, sanitation and hygiene supplies; and health care in a timely manner are required. In the prevailing armed conflict, these have been very difficult to achieve. Thus, immediate international intervention is needed.

Multilevel Intervention to Improve Racial Equity in Access to Kidney Transplant.

BACKGROUND: African Americans (AAs) have reduced access to kidney transplant (KTX). Our center undertook a multilevel quality improvement endeavor to address KTX access barriers, focused on vulnerable populations. This program included dialysis center patient/staff education, embedding telehealth services across South Carolina, partnering with community providers to facilitate testing/procedures, and increased use of high-risk donors. STUDY DESIGN: This was a time series analysis from 2017 to 2021 using autoregression to assess trends in equitable access to KTX for AAs. Equity was measured using a modified version of the Kidney Transplant Equity Index (KTEI), defined as the proportion of AAs in South Carolina with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) vs the proportion of AAs initiating evaluation, completing evaluation, waitlisting, and undergoing KTX. A KTEI of 1.00 is considered complete equity; a KTEI of <1.00 is indicative of disparity. RESULTS: From January 2017 to September 2021, 11,487 ESKD patients (64.7% AA) were referred, 6,748 initiated an evaluation (62.8% AA), 4,109 completed evaluation (59.7% AA), 2,762 were waitlisted (60.0% AA), and 1,229 underwent KTX (55.3% AA). The KTEI for KTX demonstrated significant improvements in equity. The KTEI for initiated evaluations was 0.89 in 2017, improving to 1.00 in 2021 (p = 0.0045). Completed evaluation KTEI improved from 0.85 to 0.95 (p = 0.0230), while waitlist addition KTEI improved from 0.83 to 0.96 (p = 0.0072). The KTEI for KTX also improved from 0.76 to 0.91, which did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.0657). CONCLUSIONS: A multilevel intervention focused on improving access to vulnerable populations was significantly associated with reduced disparities for AAs.

Real-World Primary Care Data Comparing ALT and FIB-4 in Predicting Future Severe Liver Disease Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) has long provided a cue for chronic liver disease (CLD) diagnostic evaluation, but the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4), a serologic score used for predicting advanced fibrosis risk in CLD, may provide an alternative signal. OBJECTIVE: Compare the predictive performance of FIB-4 with ALT for severe liver disease (SLD) events while adjusting for potential confounders. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health record data from 2012 to 2021. PATIENTS: Adult primary care patients with at least two sets of ALT and other lab values necessary for calculating two unique FIB-4 scores, excluding those patients with an SLD prior to their index FIB-4 value. MAIN MEASURES: The occurrence of an SLD event, a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation, was the outcome of interest. Categories of ALT elevation and FIB-4 advanced fibrosis risk were the primary predictor variables. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the association of FIB-4 and ALT with SLD, and the areas under the curve (AUC) for each model were compared. KEY RESULTS: The cohort of 20,828 patients included 14% with an abnormal index ALT (≥40 IU/L) and 8% with a high-risk index FIB-4 (≥2.67). During the study period, 667 (3%) patients suffered an SLD event. Adjusted multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated an association between high-risk FIB-4 (OR 19.34; 95%CI 15.50-24.13), persistently high-risk FIB-4 (OR 23.85; 95%CI 18.24-31.17), abnormal ALT (OR 7.07; 95%CI 5.81-8.59), and persistently abnormal ALT (OR 7.58; 95%CI 5.97-9.62) with SLD outcomes. The AUC of the index FIB-4 (0.847, p < 0.001) and combined FIB-4 (0.849, p < 0.001) adjusted models exceeded the index ALT adjusted model (0.815). CONCLUSIONS: High-risk FIB-4 scores demonstrated superior performance compared to abnormal ALT in predicting future SLD outcomes.

Identifying Patients at Risk for Fibrosis in a Primary Care NAFLD Cohort.

GOALS AND BACKGROUND: Using natural language processing to create a nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cohort in primary care, we assessed advanced fibrosis risk with the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS) and evaluated risk score agreement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study of adults with radiographic evidence of hepatic steatosis, we calculated patient-level FIB-4 and NFS scores and categorized them by fibrosis risk. Risk category and risk score agreement was analyzed using weighted κ, Pearson correlation, and Bland-Altman analysis. A multinomial logistic regression model evaluated associations between clinical variables and discrepant FIB-4 and NFS results. RESULTS: Of the 767 patient cohorts, 71% had a FIB-4 or NFS score in the indeterminate-risk or high-risk category for fibrosis. Risk categories disagreed in 43%, and scores would have resulted in different clinical decisions in 30% of the sample. The weighted κ statistic for risk category agreement was 0.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.36-0.46] and the Pearson correlation coefficient for log FIB-4 and NFS was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62-0.70). The multinomial logistic regression analysis identified black race (odds ratio=2.64, 95% CI: 1.84-3.78) and hemoglobin A1c (odds ratio=1.37, 95% CI: 1.23-1.52) with higher odds of having an NFS risk category exceeding FIB-4. CONCLUSIONS: In a primary care NAFLD cohort, many patients had elevated FIB-4 and NFS risk scores and these risk categories were often in disagreement. The choice between FIB-4 and NFS for fibrosis risk assessment can impact clinical decision-making and may contribute to disparities of care.

FIB-4 and incident severe liver outcomes in patients with undiagnosed chronic liver disease: A Fine-Gray competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) can reliably assess fibrosis risk in patients with chronic liver disease, and advanced fibrosis is associated with severe liver disease (SLD) outcomes. However, CLD is underdiagnosed in primary care. We examined the association between FIB-4 risk strata and the incidence of SLD preceding a CLD diagnosis while considering incident CLD diagnoses as competing risks. METHODS: Using primary care clinic data between 2007 and 2018, we identified patients with two FIB-4 scores and no liver disease diagnoses preceding the index FIB-4. Patients were followed from index FIB-4 until an incident SLD (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplantation), CLD or were censored. Hazard ratios were computed using a Fine-Gray competing risk model. RESULTS: Of 20 556 patients, there were 54.8% in the low, 34.8% in the indeterminate, 6.6% in the high and 3.8% in the persistently high-risk FIB-4 strata. During a mean 8.2 years of follow-up, 837 (4.1%) patients experienced an SLD outcome and 11.5% of the sample received a CLD diagnosis. Of patients with an SLD event, 49% received no preceding CLD diagnosis. In the adjusted Fine-Gray model, the indeterminate (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.17-1.71), high (HR 4.65, 95% CI 3.76-5.76) and persistently high-risk (HR 7.60, 95% CI 6.04-9.57) FIB-4 risk strata were associated with a higher incidence of SLD compared to the low-risk stratum. CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 scores with indeterminate- and high-risk values are associated with an increased incidence of SLD in primary care patients without known CLD.

Opioid Use Patterns in a Statewide Adult Medicaid Population Undergoing Elective Lumbar Spine Surgery.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective administrative database review. OBJECTIVE: Analyze patterns of opioid use in patients undergoing lumbar surgery and determine associated risk factors in a Medicaid population. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Opioid use in patients undergoing surgery for degenerative lumbar spine conditions is prevalent and impacts outcomes. There is limited information defining the scope of this problem in Medicaid patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Longitudinal cohort study of adult South Carolina (SC) Medicaid patients undergoing lumbar surgery from 2014 to 2017. All patients had continuous SC Medicaid coverage for 15 consecutive months, including six months before and nine months following surgery. The primary outcome was a longitudinal assessment of postoperative opioid use to determine trajectories and group-based membership using latent modeling. Univariate and multivariable modeling was conducted to assess risk factors for group-based trajectory modeling and chronic opioid use (COU). RESULTS: A total of 1455 surgeries met inclusion criteria. Group-based trajectory model demonstrated patients fit into five groups; very low use (23.4%), rapid wean following surgery (18.8%), increasing use following surgery (12.9%), slow wean following surgery (12.6%) and sustained high use (32.2%). Variables predicting membership in high opioid use included preoperative opioid use, younger age, longer length of stay, concomitant medications, and readmissions. More than three quarter of patients were deemed COUs (76.4%). On bivariate analysis, patients with degenerative disk disease were more likely to be COUs (24.8% vs. 18.6%; P =0.0168), more likely to take opioids before surgery (88.5% vs. 61.9%; P <0.001) and received higher amounts of opioids during the 30 days following surgery (mean morphine milligram equivalents 59.6 vs. 25.1; P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Most SC Medicaid patients undergoing lumbar elective lumbar spine surgery were using opioids preoperatively and continued long-term use postoperatively at a higher rate than previously reported databases. Preoperative and perioperative intake, degenerative disk disease, multiple prescribers, depression, and concomitant medications were significant risk factors.

Borderzone infarction and recurrent stroke in intracranial atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Intracranial stenosis (ICAS) is a common cause of stroke worldwide and patients with symptomatic ICAS exhibit a high rate of recurrence, particularly in the early period after the initial event. In this study, we aimed to study the association between borderzone infarct and recurrent ischemic stroke in patients hospitalized with symptomatic ICAS. METHODS: This is a retrospective single center study that included patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke in the setting of intracranial stenosis (50% or more and an acute ischemic stroke in the territory supplied by the stenosed artery) over a 32-month period. We excluded patients who did not receive a brain MRI or did not have an infarct on brain imaging. The primary predictor is infarct pattern (any borderzone vs. no borderzone infarct) and the primary outcome was recurrent cerebrovascular events (RCVE) within 90 days. We used unadjusted, and age and sex adjusted logistic regression models to determine associations between infarct pattern and RCVE at 90-days. RESULTS: Among 99 patients who met the inclusion criteria (4 tandem), the mean age was 70.1 ± 11.2 years and 41.4% were women; 43 had borderzone infarcts and 19 had RCVE. In adjusted binary logistic regression analysis, borderzone infarct was associated with increased risk of RCVE (adjusted OR 4.00 95% CI 1.33-11.99, p=0.013). The association between borderzone infarction and RCVE was not different among anterior circulation ICAD (adjusted HR 2.85 95% CI 0.64-12.76, p=0.172) vs. posterior circulation ICAD (adjusted HR 6.69 95% CI 1.06-42.11, p=0.043), p-value for interaction = 0.592. CONCLUSION: In real world post-SAMMPRIS medically treated patients with ICAD, the borderzone infarct pattern was associated with 90-day RCVE. Borderzone infarcts are likely a surrogate marker of impaired distal blood flow, highlighting the importance of targeting stroke mechanisms and developing alternative treatment strategies for high-risk cohorts.